EMERGING MARKETS-Russia’s rouble falls, CEE markets spooked by Czech virus curbs

By Ambar Warrick

Oct 13 (Reuters)Russia’s rouble fell on Tuesday as oil prices weakened, while Central European markets were spooked by new curbs in the Czech Republic to curb the spread of the coronavirus.

The rouble RUB= fell about 0.7% to the dollar, as oil prices held around losses of nearly 3% the day before after major suppliers resumed output and the International Energy Agency forecast a 5% decline in global energy demand in 2020. O/R

Russia’s central bank also forecast rising inflation until early 2021, because of the weakness in the rouble. Russian stocks .IMOEX, .IRTS fell.

Coronavirus cases in Russia rose at a record pace on Tuesday.

In Central European markets, the Czech crown EURCZK= sank 0.4% to the euro after the government ordered bars, restaurants and clubs closed from Wednesday and shifted schools to distance learning, to curb the spread of COVID-19.

The

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Forex markets: Dollar, Chinese yuan

A hand holding U.S. dollar banknotes in China on January 25, 2018.

Zhang Peng | LightRocket | Getty Images

The dollar bounced back from a three-week low on Tuesday as market players bought it back, particularly against riskier peers, after Chinese authorities appeared to be trying to put a brake on recent rises in the yuan.

The Australian dollar lost about a half percent, taking an additional hit from media reports China has halted coal imports from the country as their relations deteriorate.

But overall risk sentiment was propped up by hope that former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden will beat President Donald Trump in the Nov. 3 U.S. election and push forward with a large stimulus to shore up a pandemic-hit economy.

The dollar index rose 0.1% to 93.190, trying to extend its rebound from Friday’s near-three-week low of 92.997, with the euro falling 0.17% to $1.1794.

The Chinese

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Nasdaq 100 Jumps 4% Amid Furious Rally in Big Tech: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) —

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U.S. stocks climbed, with the Nasdaq 100 jumping 4%, amid a rally in some of the world’s largest technology companies.

The S&P 500 jumped to a six-week high and the tech-heavy gauge was on track for its biggest gain since April, with Amazon.com Inc. and Apple Inc. soaring ahead of key events. The online retailer kicks off its Prime Day on Tuesday, while the tech behemoth — whose price target was raised by RBC Capital Markets — is set to embrace 5G as one of its most significant additions to this year’s iPhones. Twitter Inc. rallied on an upgrade at Deutsche Bank, which also boosted its price estimates for other companies that derive their revenue from digital advertising such as Facebook Inc. and Alphabet Inc.

After plunging into a correction last month, the Nasdaq 100 extended its surge from this year’s lows to almost 75%. Investors

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European Stocks Rise With U.S. Futures; Yuan Falls: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) —

Global stocks and U.S. futures rose as investors focused on the beginning of earnings season and the prospect for more economic stimulus.

The Europe Stoxx 600 Index gained 0.7%, Nasdaq 100 Index futures added 1.4% and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rallied to the highest since mid-2018. Chinese stocks advanced on optimism that President Xi Jinping is planning to further open parts of the economy to foreign investment.

Elsewhere in markets, the offshore yuan fell after China’s central bank took steps to restrain a recent rally. Crude oil and gold declined, while the dollar index strengthened. Treasuries are closed for a U.S. holiday today.

E-commerce retailer Allegro.eu SA shares jumped as much as 61% in its stock market debut, becoming the largest company on the Poland’s main exchange.



chart: China's yuan has seen accelerating gains


© Bloomberg
China’s yuan has seen accelerating gains

Nasdaq-Like Valuation No Deterrent for Poland’s Top Stock

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Markets globally

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China’s Exports Seen Sustaining Recovery in September as Markets Reopen | Investing News

BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s exports likely posted a fourth straight month of gains in September as more trading partners reopened their economies, a Reuters poll showed, while imports are also expected to have edged back into growth.

Exports have not been as severely affected by the global slowdown as some analysts had feared, due in part to record shipments of medical supplies and robust demand for electronic products, adding to hopes for a sustained economic recovery.

In September, exports are expected to have risen 10% from a year earlier, according to a median estimate of a Reuters poll of 24 economists. Imports likely rose 0.3% on year, improving after back-to-back decline in July and August.

Exports in August rose a solid 9.5% year-on-year, the strongest gain since March 2019.

Stronger exports could signal a faster and more balanced recovery for the Chinese economy, which is rebounding from a record first-quarter

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Financial markets have waited patiently for fiscal stimulus. That might change soon

The headlines make the situation seem like a curiosity.

For investors, Wall Street analysts, and even some financial journalists, the reality of the damage to the economy, several weeks after the initial round of fiscal support expired, may indeed seem like a spectacle.

But it’s not that way for millions of Americans out of work or struggling to pay the rent or buy food in the wake of this year’s coronavirus pandemic.

It may not need saying that the longer the economy goes without another financial aid package, the worse the situation may become. But some analysts increasingly think it will also soon start to make an impact where it cannot be ignored: in the financial markets.

“Stimulus is the wrong word for this,” said David Rosenberg, a long-time strategist now running his own firm, Rosenberg Research. “This not classic Keynesian stimulus. It’s a lifeline to get us through. The

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The Markets End The Week In Good Shape (Technically Speaking For The Week Of 10/5-10/9)

My Friday column is divided into two sections. The first uses the long-leading, leading, and coincidental format developed by Arthur Burns and Geoffrey Moore to determine the current economic trajectory. The second looks at the markets.

Long-Leading Indicators

Financially, the economy is in good shape:

The Fed has been pumping cash into the economy (left). The Fed’s credit market support programs have lowered financial stress; the BBB yield (right) has dropped to 5-year lows.

The earnings picture is improving — but remember that word is clearly relative (emphasis added):

The expectation is for total S&P 500 earnings to decline -22.8% from the same period last year on -2.9% lower revenues. This would follow the -32.3% decline in Q2 when economic and business activities came to a halt as a result of the pandemic-driven lockdowns.

The earnings outlook has been steadily improving since the start of Q3, as economic and business

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Stock Markets Rise On Virus Treatment News

Stock markets rose Friday as news of progress on virus treatments boosted sentiment, following a bout of volatility over the prospects for a US stimulus package.

Observers said that with Democrats and Republicans about $600 billion apart in their stimulus proposals, there was little expectation a deal would be reached before the November 3 presidential election.

“Things are still up in the air when it comes to the relief package in the US,” noted David Madden, market analyst at CMC Markets UK.

He added however that “the prospect of some form of stimulus in the US is trumping the health crisis” for stock markets.

And there has been some good news regarding coronavirus treatments.

Markets cheered a write-up in the New England Journal of Medicine reporting that Gilead Sciences’ remdesivir drug resulted in “consistent, clinically meaningful improvements” in coronavirus patients, the latest positive indicator about a leading treatment.

That news

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Stocks Gain as Aid Speculation Takes Center Stage: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks rallied and were on pace for the best weekly increase since August as traders bet that lawmakers are moving closer to providing more fiscal stimulus. Treasury yields were mostly flat and a dollar gauge slipped.

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The S&P 500 gained for a third day with the White House planning to offer a $1.8 trillion stimulus proposal. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell warned earlier that it unlikely an agreement would be reached before the election. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 jumped more than 1% with chip maker Xilinx Inc. leaping on a report it’s in advanced talks for a $30 billion takeover by rival Advanced Micro Devices Inc.

“We’ve had this whipsaw around wondering if there will be more fiscal stimulus, which I think we desperately need to keep the economy rolling,” said Ron Temple, head of U.S. equity at Lazard Asset Management LLC.

European stocks rose

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Dow Futures Gain As Markets Remain Focused On Stimulus Talks

The Friday Market Minute

  • Global stocks press forward on U.S. stimulus hopes, with gains in Europe capped by a worrying surge in coronavirus infection rates.
  • House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin will resume talks Friday, with President Trump pressing for stand-alone agreements versus the Democrats preference for a comprehensive relief bill.
  • European coronavirus infections are rising at record levels in many major economies as the autumn weather turns, but leaders are hoping to avoid sweeping lockdowns in the weeks ahead.
  • Oil prices on pace for a 10% week gain on supply outages and improving demand, while the dollar tumbles to a three-week low against a basket of its global peers.
  • U.S. equity futures suggest a firmer open on Wall Street, which is looking at its best five-day stretch since August, heading into the teeth of the third quarter earnings seasons next week.

U.S. equity futures edged higher

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